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(1912) contains, in embryonic form, the central core of Pigou's contribution to economic theory.

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In a competitive economy, decisions are made in such a way as to maximize private net product but not necessarily social net product. Appropriate taxes and subsidies could, however, make private and social net products equal, thus leading each individual to "behave" in a way that maximizes social welfare.

It could be argued, indeed, it IS being argued by the current US Administration that this failure of the "competitive economy" over the last few years as we have dived headlong into this recession has resulted in some minimization of the "social net product" of this once great country. As a result, many of the policies that are being put in place today or are being proposed today, are specifically intended to redress this failure of market economics.

In 1933 Pigou published The Theory of Unemployment, a book that was held in great regard by orthodox economists. Because of this, it became a prime target for attack by John Maynard Keynes in his General Theory of Employment Interest and Money (1936). Pigou answered with several books and articles in which he attempted to restate his position in the light of Keynes's criticisms.

It has been suggested that, in the end, Pigou's most lasting contribution to economics was to point out that, as long as wage and price flexibility exists, the value of assets, the prices of which are fixed in money terms, will rise as wages and prices fall, reducing the propensity to save and, consequently, increasing the propensity to consume. It follows from this "Pigou effect" that Keynes's "under-employment equilibrium" is not really a state of true equilibrium but rather a state of disequilibrium occasioned by inflexible wages and prices.

And there are lessons there for all of us!

Pigou had strong principles and these gave him some problems during WW1. He was not prepared to undertake military service when it required an obligation to destroy human life. He remained at Cambridge, but during the vacations was an ambulance driver at the front and insisted on undertaking jobs of particular danger. Towards the end of the war he reluctantly accepted a post in the Board of Trade, but showed little aptitude for the work.

He also loved mountains and climbing, and introduced climbing to many of his friends, so he would have been right at home here in Colorado. An illness affecting his heart developed in the 30's, however, and this affected his vigor, curtailing his climbing and leaving him with phases of debility for the rest of his life. Pigou gave up his professor's chair in 1943, but remained a Fellow of King's College until his death. In his later years he gradually became more of a recluse, emerging occasionally from his rooms to give lectures, visit the bathroom or to take a walk.

Pigou died on March 7, 1959, at the age of 81.

What would he tell us if he was alive today?

"See, Keynes wasn't always right!"
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Thursday, June 4, 2009

Famous economists and the current recession: Hyman P. Minsky


What would Hyman P. Minsky Say?


Hyman Philip Minsky was born 23 September 1919 in Chicago, Illinois, the elder by 7 years of two boys born to Sam and Dora (who was not an explorer). He was schooled in the Chicago school system and exposed to the Chicago School of Economics while receiving a Bachelor of Science degree from the University of Chicago. He went on to earn a Master's degree in public administration and a Doctorate from Harvard University, where he studied under Joseph Schumpeter and Wassily Leontief.

Minsky taught at Brown University from 1949 to 1958, and from 1957 to 1965 was an Associate Professor of Economics at the University of California, Berkeley. In 1965 he became Professor of Economics of Washington University in St Louis and retired in 1990. He died in 1996 at the age of 77.

He was apparently a tall man with unruly hair who wore un-pressed suits ... which makes me feel better about my wardrobe. He approached the world as "one big research tank," says Diana Minsky, his daughter and coincidentally an art history professor. "Economics was an integrated part of his life. It wasn't isolated. There wasn't a sense that work was something he did at the office."

Hyman Minsky spent much of his career advancing the idea that financial systems are inherently susceptible to bouts of speculation that, if they last long enough, end in crises. At a time when many economists were coming to believe in the unfailing efficiency of markets, Minsky was considered somewhat of a radical for his stress on their tendency toward excess and upheaval.

Mainstream economics generally views capitalism as essentially stable – tending towards steady growth. Crises arise either from preventable mistakes by policy makers (eg, the Federal Reserve’s too-tight monetary policy, widely supposed to have exacerbated the Great Depression), or by external shocks, such as OPEC’s oil price hike in the early 1970s. Minsky, by contrast, argued that capitalism is prone to crises from within; even good times are destined to end as people start to get cocky about risk and borrow too much.

Minsky is now famous for his proposition that ‘stability is unstable’. In short, what this means is that unusually long periods of economic stability will lull investors into taking on more risk. This leads them to borrow excessively and to overpay for assets. Minsky suggested three main types of borrower, increasingly risky in nature.
  1. Hedged borrowers who can meet all debt payments from their cash flows.
  2. Speculative borrowers who can meet their interest payments, but have to keep ‘rolling’ the debt over to pay back the original loan.
  3. Ponzi borrowers (named after the notorious American pyramid-scheme conman) who can repay neither the interest nor the original debt, and rely entirely on rising asset prices to allow them continually to refinance their debt.
The longer a period of economic stability lasts, his argument goes, the more society moves towards being full of Ponzi borrowers, until the entire economy is a house of cards, built on excessively easy credit and speculation.

The US housing market is the classic case in point. When home buyers were expected to have a down-payment of 10% or 20% to qualify for a mortgage, and to provide documentation that showed they'd be able to repay the loan, there was minimal risk. But as home prices rose, and speculators entered the market, increasingly competitive lenders "relaxed their guard" and began offering loans with no money down and little or no documentation. Then the bubble burst. Houston, we now have a problem. The logic is simple. If you lend to a buyer who puts 20% down and house prices fall by 10%, so what? If a lender's portfolio is tied up in loans to buyers who don't put anything down, and house prices fall 10%, big trouble!

Minsky's model of the credit system, which he dubbed the "Financial Instability Hypothesis" (FIH), incorporated many ideas already circulated by John Stuart Mill, Alfred Marshall, Knut Wicksell and Irving Fisher. " tWww 1stlivenude Live En Models Category Play With Paris St Live Nude Far from the Madding Crowdb d St Live Nude q q St Fuck St Live Nude aWww 1stlivenude Live En Models Category Play With Paris St Live Nude Far from the Madding Crowdr St Live Nude Family k Vibrator St Live Nude