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That potential challenger can be narrowed down to either Kgalema Motlanthe or Tokyo Sexwale. Whether they have the guts to take on Zuma at next year's conference is debatable.

They have both - Motlanthe before Polokwane and Sexwale during the past few months - proved to be flip-floppers - you can't tell if they are saying "yes" or "no".

They need to speak a little more clearly simply because, if they do not declare their candidacy in the next six months, power will have calcified around Zuma.

And there is a lot of power that Zuma can still draw on despite the belief of some, Malema and a few others included, that he is a man alone and isolated.

Zuma's stronghold electorally is KwaZulu-Natal. The ANC has been losing power everywhere in the country except in Zuma's home province where, in both the 2009 and the May 18 elections this year, the ANC experienced such a surge that losses elsewhere were compensated for.

KwaZulu-Natal , despite murmurings that Premier Zweli Mkhize has turned sour on Zuma, remains firmly in the hands of the man from Nkandla. Mkhize has comprehensively denied talk of a rift between himself and Zuma.

Zuma retains the support of other provinces, notably Mpumalanga, the Free State, Eastern Cape and even Malema's Limpopo.

This is a massive disadvantage for anyone wanting to get rid of Zuma. Plus, despite criticism from Zwelinzima Vavi, trade union federation Cosatu remains a Zuma poodle through and through. The SA Communist Party has become a branch of the Zuma-supporting wing of the ANC.

For Malema, with his bravado and loudness, the question becomes one of timing: whoever his candidate might be, he must declare himself early. Malema's hero, Peter Mokaba, managed to cut Cyril Ramaphosa out in 1997 by coming out very early for Mbeki.

If Motlanthe or Sexwale do not declare their candidacy in the next year, Zuma will have a year in which to move against Malema before he becomes a lame-duck president.

Given that Malema outsmarted him last time, Zuma will be going in for the kill. Malema should temper his tongue. Zuma is not a man to underestimate.